For Vermonters, it’s people, not party
History and current trends show that Vermont’s “blueness” is relative, recent, and tenuous.
At the national level, Vermont is considered a deep blue state. Since 1992, the majority of Vermonters have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate. Kamala Harris’ 2024 state win was so predictable it was called within minutes of the polls closing.
We’re also seen as blue because we’re strongly identified with Bernie Sanders’ presidential runs. Long-serving Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy, Senator Peter Welch, and Congresswoman Becca Balint are as blue as they come.
But these blue bona fides hide a purple undertone. They don’t explain Vermont voters’ tendency to split the ticket further down ballot, or our heavy favoritism of incumbents, which doesn’t always take party into account. They’ve also led to mistaken assumptions that the majority of Vermonters are in lockstep with the Democratic Party.
Elected in 1975, Leahy was Vermont’s first and only Democratic senator until 2001, when then-Republican Senator Jim Jeffords defected his party and became an Independent who leaned Democratic. Senators Welch and Sanders are continuing that tradition—Welch is a Democrat while Sanders is an Independent who caucuses with Democrats.
With one brief exception from 1959-61, our single-member House district didn’t have a Democratic-leaning member until 1991, when Sanders was elected. He was replaced by Welch in 2007, and Balint replaced Welch when he replaced Leahy in the Senate in 2022.
Vermont’s 50-year blue run in Congress has been maintained by only five people, two of whom are Independents, and all of whom have enjoyed broad support from voters in both parties.
Vermont voters’ tendency to split the ticket usually shows up in the governor and lieutenant governor races. Over the course of those 50 years of our blue Congressional delegation, Vermonters have elected eight governors—four Democrats and four Republicans. Their time in office was almost evenly divided: Republicans served for 24 years, Democrats for 26. These governors served with alternating Democratic and Republican and, more recently, Progressive lieutenant governors.
If we’re consistently voting Democratic at the federal level, then why the party affiliation back-and-forth with the top two statewide offices? It doesn’t make a ton of sense unless you also consider that Vermonters love incumbents, regardless of party.
Leahy served for 48 years. Jeffords served 14 years in the House and 12 in the Senate as a Republican, and 6 more as an Independent. Sanders served 16 years in the House and is now in his 19th year as senator. Welch served 16 years in the House and was just re-elected to his second term as senator. Balint was just re-elected to her second term in the House, continuing the trend.
This trend continues because Vermont’s small size allows voters to know their Congress members as people. Luckily for us, they are dedicated public servants who are deeply committed to Vermont, and they’ve earned every re-election.
To me this says that our Congressional delegation has been blue for so long not because Vermont voters are committed to the Democratic Party, but because our Congress members connect with voters as people, and Vermonters generally stick with people, not parties.
Case in point: Governor Phil Scott, currently serving his fifth term. Despite eight years of little progress, he is currently the country’s “most popular governor.” His win margin increases every election as Democrats vote Republican at the top of the statewide ticket. Viable Democratic candidates have held back from running against an incumbent perceived as unbeatable. To the public Phil Scott is likeable, and Vermont voters are sticking with him.
Further down the ballot, things change. Since 2005, Democrats have held an increasing legislative majority, achieving a supermajority in 2022. Like any majority, they’ve used their power to enact policies and programs with which, over time, many Vermont voters, regardless of party, became increasingly unhappy. They’ve also used their power to override gubernatorial vetoes—some of which had substantial support from Vermonters. This led voters to look past individual lawmakers and view Democrats as a whole as a problem.
This has resulted in party affiliation becoming a liability for individual Democratic incumbents. In 2024, Democratic statewide incumbents Treasurer Mike Pieciak, Secretary of State Sarah Copeland Hanzas, and Attorney General Charity Clark all won re-election. But their margins were 6-8% less than the prior election.
In 2024 Democrats also dramatically lost their legislative supermajority. Of the 50 legislative seats that were flipped from blue to red in the US in 2024, more than half were in Vermont. Aided by the governor’s simplistic messaging campaign about affordability and by a vitriolic presidential campaign, Republicans claimed the seats of numerous incumbent Democrats.
After decades of re-electing incumbents as long as they don’t make a huge mistake, Vermonters have shifted from supporting candidates to punishing parties. They’ve also demonstrated that even a governor with a mediocre record like Phil Scott is preferable as long as he comes across as reasonable. Understandably, it’s confusing.
It’s also a trend Democrats would be smart to understand. History and current trends show that Vermont’s “blueness” is relative, recent, and tenuous. Vermont has voted Democratic in only 10 of 60 presidential elections. Leahy became our first Democratic senator only 50 years ago. Our first Democratic governor was elected only 57 years ago, and since then there’s only been four others. Democrats won the majority in the Legislature for the first time only recently (1987) and have held it for only 28 out of the last 234 years. If Vermont political history were a calendar, Democrats would only be in control in December.
Vermonters seem content to elect people who put Vermonters first, regardless of party. In the last election, they sent a clear message to Democrats: they want solutions to the problems they’re facing, now. If a solution comes in a red or blue wrapper, they don’t really care. They’re patient up to a point, but they’ll vote out of office anyone they think isn’t helping them.
Right now, Vermont is showing its purple undertone. Our deeply conservative history is not far behind us, and, considering the national political landscape, it’s not inconceivable that Vermont could return to those conservative roots. Democrats still have the majority, but voters told them in no uncertain terms that they have gotten too far out in front of Vermonters, and will need to pull back, compromise, and show they’re listening to the message voters are sending. Democrats will need to put people first, not party.