Whatever happened to 6-3-1?
The things that matter day-to-day for Vermonters and for the future health and success of our state have not improved or have gotten worse on Phil Scott’s watch.
At the start of his administration, Governor Scott shared three issues that motivated him most, represented by “6-3-1:” six fewer workers in the Vermont workforce every day; three fewer students enrolled in K-12 every day; and one baby born every day exposed to addiction. He said he would approve only policies or programs that would have a positive impact on jobs, property taxes, or opioid addiction. His stated strategic priorities are to grow the economy; make Vermont more affordable; and protect the most vulnerable.
His efforts to increase the number of people living in Vermont have not worked. I worked at the Agency of Commerce and Community Development from 2018-2021. My job was to stand up the remote worker program—the attention grabbing “move to Vermont and get $10,000” program. It was a fabulous marketing idea, but only about 660 people ended up moving here. Vermont’s population remains flat and statewide non-farm employment is also flat.
Our business environment hasn’t improved either. 99% of Vermont’s businesses are considered small businesses (employing fewer than 500 people), and they employ over half of Vermont’s workforce. 97% of those small businesses have fewer than 20 employees. These businesses grew 3% from 2018 to 2024 but have 6.7% fewer employees. The number of businesses with more than 20 employees fell by 7.8% over the same period. The number of farms in Vermont has decreased 4% since 2017.
Meanwhile, the cost of living in Vermont has drastically increased during Governor Scott’s time in office. Median rent has increased 21%. The cost of a silver family health insurance plan has increased 148.5% since 2018. Education property taxes have increased by double digits over the last eight years. My education property tax rate in Essex Junction has increased 23.4% since 2019.
This year, rather than addressing the source of the problem—the education funding formula—the Governor forced the restructuring of our entire education system in the name of affordability. Instead of collaborating with stakeholders on changing this complex system, he took a top-down, do-as-I-say approach. He forced the Legislature to wrestle with a controversial plan he released late in the session that didn’t address the largest driver of school budget increases: health insurance. The resulting caveat-ridden bill might accomplish one of his goals—closing some small, rural schools—but it won’t save anyone a penny.
Affordability has been Governor Scott’s mantra throughout his time as Vermont’s CEO. But he hasn’t yet delivered on anything that makes it easier for the average Vermonter to afford to live here. And if you’re someone who falls into his “most vulnerable” category, all I can say is, oof.
Tragically, the most vulnerable Vermonters have suffered most under the Scott Administration. Since 2017, opioid-related deaths have risen 114.5%. The Governor has done little to improve this record breaking statistic. His administration touts accomplishments in the area of “addressing the opioid epidemic,” but these amount largely to changing a few positions and expanding prescription drug takebacks. He has twice vetoed an overdose prevention center (both a study and an actual site; the second veto was overridden), referring to this innovative, proven approach as a “costly experiment.” Consider that his predecessor, Peter Shumlin, dedicated an entire State of the State address to tackling substance use disorder, which precipitated Vermont’s becoming a national leader in prevention and treatment through our hub and spoke system. That’s what I call protecting the most vulnerable.
There’s another category of vulnerable Vermonters who are apparently not included in 6-3-1: the homeless. Since 2017, the number of unhoused people has gone from 1,225 to 3,458, up 182%. Since pandemic-era federal dollars no longer pay for housing the homeless, Governor Scott has done everything he can to eliminate state spending on supporting them too.
His many battles with the Legislature over the motel program have yanked homeless Vermonters—families, elderly, children, handicapped, critically or terminally ill—in and out of shelter for years now. For five gubernatorial terms (almost 10 years!) we have heard him tell the Legislature they must deliver a plan he can approve. But he has vetoed or scuttled every one of them while simultaneously not coming up with any plans of his own. It is now abundantly clear that the homeless are not on Governor Scott’s list of the most vulnerable.
It’s true that the Scott Administration has had a few successes over their nine years in office. Yes, the US economy has been volatile and unpredictable, especially lately. The pandemic was an outlier to say the least. But the things that matter day-to-day for Vermonters and for the future health and success of our state have not improved or have gotten worse on Phil Scott’s watch. His promise of protecting the most vulnerable has long been abandoned.
Every seasoned leader knows that if you’re going to set criteria for your performance, people are going to hold you to it. It’s been nine years and I think it’s time for some accounting—and some change. The Scott Administration has failed utterly at its 6-3-1 standard of care for Vermont.